‘’OICCI Business Confidence Index Survey – Improvement in Overall Sentiment 5th Wave Results and Analysis”
The trend of the business community sentiment indicates stability and improvement in confidence, in the 5th wave of the Business Confidence Index (BCI) survey undertaken by the Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry (OICCI) during November 2011, following four earlier ones which were conducted during the period starting from Feb/Mar 2010. The latest results indicate that the BCI stands at ?25%, a marginal drop from ?24% during the 4th wave in February 2011, and combined with all the other trends coming out of the BCI survey, shows that the business community, despite the concerns, is showing signs of stability and some confidence. Figure 1: Business Confidence Index Chart
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-30 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr 5th Qtr

The sudden drop in confidence levels amongst the business community in the 2nd wave was already explained in our previous reports, viz. the influence of factors like, poor law and order, continuing double digit inflation, electricity and gas load shedding issues. Similarly, the aftermath of the devastating 2010 floods in large parts of the country which negatively impacted not only supply and costs of agricultural products to the respective industrial consumers but also displaced a significant number of people, seemed to have dampened the spirits in the third and fourth waves surveys conducted in November 2010 and February 2011. A significant change, noted in the latest BCI, is that inflation has been cited as the biggest single reason, (43% respondents vs 36% in the 4th wave), for “decline in business situation” in the last six months, pushing back all the other factors, including the law & order related matters which .