It has been said that we live in an age of uncertainty, an age of turbulence and structural
discontinuities; the greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence, but acting
with yesterday’s logic (Drucker, 2005). Therefore, the traditional industry recipes that have
worked well in the past are unlikely to lead to sustained success in the future (Hamel 2000
cited by Bradfield and El-Sayed, 2009; PWC, 2009; Cooper, 2007; HC Strategic
Consequently, the second boundary of this research stems from the fact that if the
pharmaceutical companies are to better position themselves to survive the future, they had
better begin to think about the future in a structured way in order to determine what lies
ahead and how their company should start to prepare for this. Looking into the future in a
systematic way necessitates reviewing the future studies literature in terms of different future
study methodologies. These methodologies include both the process of depicting the future
and identifying the driving forces. According to Healthcare Strategic Management (2000),
one way of overcoming the ‘future blindness’ is to engage in scenario thinking – a powerful
mechanism for learning and change in organisations. However, the existing literature lacks a
structured methodology for future scenario development in the pharmaceutical industry.
faces a lack of a value chain reference model (archetype model) describing various future airline industry value chain models. Accordingly, the next relevant study area of this research
is value chain analysis which clarifies the selected unit of analysis for future research.
Having looked at the future studies methodologies and value chain analysis models,
according to Singh (2008), there is no published structured study that looks at the future of
supply chains and value chains using a scenario planning approach. Since there are varying
degrees of confidence in.